The Tampa Bay Rays’ decision to step away from the proposed $1.3 billion Tropicana Field stadium project has reopened the conversation around one of St. Petersburg’s most valuable redevelopment sites. At the same time, other areas in Tampa Bay are seeing notable commercial real estate activity, from new industrial builds in Drew Park to major acquisitions by BayCare Health System.
This article breaks down the key developments shaping Florida’s commercial real estate outlook for the remainder of 2025 highlighting opportunities, risks, and market shifts investors should be watching closely.
Tampa Bay Rays’ Stadium Developments
The recent withdrawal of the Tampa Bay Rays from the proposed $1.3 billion stadium project has reignited discussions about the future of the Tropicana Field site in St. Petersburg. This 86-acre property, located in the Historic Gas Plant District, presents a significant redevelopment opportunity that has attracted interest from various developers.
Potential Developers and Proposed Projects
- Blake Investment Partners: Shortly after the Rays’ announcement, this St. Petersburg-based private equity firm, in collaboration with an unnamed New York partner, submitted an unsolicited $260 million cash offer for the Tropicana Field site. Their proposal includes an upfront $60 million allocation for immediate stadium repairs necessitated by Hurricane Milton, with the remaining $200 million payable upon the expiration of the Rays’ lease in 2028.
- AquaVenture Developments: Led by CEO Wade E. Waters, this development group has proposed transforming the site into an 86-acre waterpark. Waters envisions creating a landmark attraction that capitalizes on Florida’s climate and tourism appeal.
- Hines: Given Hines’ extensive experience in executing large-scale projects globally, they remain a key player to watch in the potential redevelopment of the Tropicana Field site. If the Rays relocate, Hines could pursue alternative development plans for the area, leveraging their expertise to create a transformative project that aligns with the city’s vision and community needs.
City-Led Redevelopment Initiatives
The City of St. Petersburg has been proactive in exploring redevelopment options for the Tropicana Field site. Collaborating with HKS Architects, the city developed two conceptual master plans: one incorporating a baseball stadium and another without. These plans aim to create a vibrant mixed-use district featuring residential, commercial, and recreational spaces.
Community Considerations
Local community groups, such as Faith in Florida, are advocating for redevelopment plans that prioritize affordable housing, job creation, parks, and healthcare facilities, especially for descendants of the Historic Gas Plant District’s original residents. Their involvement underscores the importance of inclusive development that honors the area’s cultural and historical significance.
The future of the Tropicana Field site is at a pivotal juncture. With multiple stakeholders expressing interest and the community emphasizing equitable development, the City of St. Petersburg faces critical decisions. The objective is to transform this substantial land parcel into a development that serves the economic, social, and cultural needs of the community while maximizing its potential as a key asset for the city.
BayCare Health System’s Strategic Expansion
In February 2025, BayCare Health System, the largest healthcare provider in West Central Florida, acquired a 36-acre office property in Tampa Bay Park for $145 million or $245/SF, according to Hillsborough County public records. This acquisition includes three buildings and two parking garages adjacent to St. Joseph’s, St. Joseph’s Children’s, and St. Joseph’s Women’s hospitals. The purchase aims to consolidate services from leased offices and provide room for strategic growth, including the expansion of BayCare Medical Group physician practices.
New Industrial Development in Drew Park
In response to the escalating demand for industrial space in Tampa’s Drew Park area, Florida ROI Commercial Property Brokerage is offering a new industrial development opportunity at 4421 N. Hubert Avenue. This project features up to 29,000 square feet of customizable small bay flex warehouse suites, with individual units ranging from 2,600 to 7,500 square feet. The property is strategically located near major highways and Tampa International Airport, providing excellent access for logistics and distribution operations.
Carter Henderson, Senior Associate at Florida ROI, is leading the leasing efforts for this development. Henderson brings extensive experience in the Tampa commercial real estate market, having successfully closed significant transactions such as a $5.85 million land deal in South Tampa.
The Drew Park warehouse project is designed to address the shortage of infill industrial spaces in the area, offering modern facilities tailored to meet the needs of businesses requiring proximity to transportation hubs and urban centers. The suites are currently available for pre-leasing, with occupancy anticipated in the near future.
Shifts in Migration Patterns and Economic Impacts in Florida
Recent trends indicate a significant slowdown in domestic migration to Florida. Between July 2023 and July 2024, the state experienced a net domestic migration gain of approximately 64,000 residents, a stark decrease from the 314,000 net gain observed in 2022. This decline is attributed to factors such as rising housing costs, increased insurance premiums, and concerns about overcrowding.
Conversely, international migration has played a pivotal role in Florida’s population growth. From July 2023 to July 2024, the state welcomed over 411,000 international migrants, positioning Florida among the top states for foreign arrivals. This influx has been instrumental in offsetting the deceleration of domestic migration.
However, recent trade tensions, particularly those involving the U.S. and Canada, have introduced new challenges. President Donald Trump’s implementation of tariffs has strained relations with Canada, a key economic partner and the largest foreign investor in Florida real estate. These tariffs have led to increased costs for building materials, notably lumber, which is essential for construction. The National Association of Home Builders estimates that such tariffs could raise the cost of a new home by approximately $9,200.
The deteriorating trade relations have also influenced Canadian investment patterns in Florida. Reports indicate that some Canadian investors are divesting from U.S. properties, including those in Florida, due to the unfavorable economic climate. Additionally, the weakening Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar has made American real estate investments less attractive, further contributing to this trend.
These dynamics have placed the Florida real estate market in a precarious position. The combination of slowing domestic migration, reliance on international migrants, and strained foreign investment underscores the need for strategic economic planning to navigate these evolving challenges.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What happens next for the Tropicana Field site now that the Rays withdrew from the stadium project?
A: Several developers have expressed interest in redeveloping the 86-acre site, with proposals ranging from a waterpark to mixed-use communities. The City of St. Petersburg is evaluating plans with input from the community.
Q: How is BayCare Health System expanding in Tampa?
A: BayCare acquired a 36-acre office property near its hospitals in Tampa Bay Park for $145 million to consolidate services and support future growth of its medical group.
Q: What’s driving industrial real estate development in Tampa’s Drew Park area?
A: High demand for infill warehouse space is prompting projects like Florida ROI’s new flex industrial development at 4421 N. Hubert Avenue, offering customizable units for logistics and distribution use.
Looking to stay ahead in Florida’s evolving commercial real estate market? Whether you’re tracking redevelopment projects, industrial growth, or shifting investment trends, Florida ROI is here to help. Connect with our expert team for insights, market analysis, and personalized strategies to guide your next move.
Contact Florida ROI today and take the next step with confidence.
