Speakers: 
John Crossman, Crossman & Company
George McBee, GMM Consulting, LLC
Jay Miller, Equity Incorporated
Mitchell Rice, RMC Property Group
Paul Rutledge, Casto Lifestyle Properties
I had the pleasure of listening to an ICSC panel in Tampa, Florida with a great group of local professionals talk about the recent ICSC conference in Las Vegas and what the future holds for our area in retail real estate. The common theme was that deals are starting to get done. The deals don’t resemble what they did 5 years ago, as small footprint retailers are the most active in the market and rents are compressed. But the panelists seemed to agree (with tongue planted firmly in cheek) that the “lousy deals at low rents” offerings made for a more interesting show than in the recent past when few retailers seemed to have an appetite for expansion.
Summary:
Housing is rebounding in the Tampa market place. Retail vacancies are shrinking. Publicly traded firms need to expand. Banks, auto part stores, dollar stores and restaurants concepts were the sectors that were most active.
McBee when asked about top three areas of movement in the market:
“Convenience …..gas…. here in the Tampa Bay Market, the auto parts firms, and the fast food restaurants are still doing deals.
Miller on his business:
“I think we are the only company on this panel that is still trying to develop a heavily anchored retail project. We have decided to develop at Big Bend Road and I75, called South Shore Commons…We are entitled for 1,000,000 sq. ft., but we are trying to get 400,000sq.ft. for the first phase out of the ground.”
Miller on hopes from Las Vegas:
“If any of you are thinking we are actually to the point of developing new shopping centers, we are getting closer, “Are we there, yet?,” Not quite. What I experienced (from Las Vegas) is an increase in momentum, but it is still tempered by caution, lots of auto retailers and convenience stores and we are very encouraged by B Shop retailers who will locate on out parcels of the center. We are actually surprised that they will pay some pretty aggressive rents.” (Went on to mention Starbucks, Darden, Outback, Red Robin as concepts looking….on the anchor side, Discount retailers and Specialty big box, Sporting goods, Office Products, Home Stores are starting to put their toes in the market, but their attitude and underwriting is very conservative.)
On when the Big Box retailers will start to move again:
“We are starting to see the housing market turn around in a pretty big way in our submarket….I am fairly optimistic that we are 6 to 18 months from the retailers believing that.”
Crossman added to Miller’s comments:
“You touched on it a little, but I would like to add that it used to be a projection of growth to get an anchor deal done. Today, there is none of that…. zero.” (meaning that the retailer wants to know roof top numbers today to base a site selection decision. They do not make decisions in this environment on what roof tops are projected to be in 3-5 years.)
Rice on Las Vegas:
“The comment I would add is that the deals to be done with anchor tenants are on “in-fill” deals,(added that he does not expect hard core negotiations in Vegas. Florida is RMC’s market and the Florida ICSC conference is more consequential to their business, than ReCon. He uses the Vegas show to plan for Florida.)
Rice on the retailers in motion:
“Dollar Tree, the dollar stores”
Rutledge on activity in the market:
He mentioned Truffles and highlighted restaurants as growth opportunities. “I think there are a lot of these concepts that are going to try to find spots. They have limited staff resources and are going to need help (from brokers) mapping out the area.”
Rutledge on the market:
“The model of “find the big box retailer” and then fill the rest of the space, is broken for the near term. I think there is a lot to be done looking for empty out parcels, parking lot locations, and empty box spaces. We are out looking for every opportunity…tenant driven.”
“Multi-family is hot right now. There is yield and there are buyers.”
“We are working on a multi-family project right now with a partner and considering placing out parcels to service the residential and stack that density behind.”
McBee About the Tampa market:
He mentioned the dollar stores, banks, and restaurants all doing deals.
Miller on surprises in the market in Tampa:
“There is a new group in the cinema industry that has decided to get back in the business….15 locations with 200 screens”
Rutledge on future:
“This is the key to why ICSC is so important…..your friendships are important….I think the energy level, the certainty level, the feeling that something is going to get done. Maybe not what we anticipated, but I challenge you to go out and do what people think cannot get done. I think we can. I think Florida is on its way back. I think there are going to be a group of people that are going to be successful. I think there are tenants that are going to need help and support and we can provide it. This is a great business and this is a great time. These times are when successful people thrive and set themselves apart (for the next round of growth).
“Lousy deals at low rents, is a good thing!”
ICSC NextGen Tampa – Recap of ReCon Las Vegas 2012
Speakers:
John Crossman, Crossman & Company
George McBee, GMM Consulting, LLC
Jay Miller, Equity Incorporated
Mitchell Rice, RMC Property Group
Paul Rutledge, Casto Lifestyle Properties
I had the pleasure of listening to an ICSC panel in Tampa, Florida with a great group of local professionals talk about the recent ICSC conference in Las Vegas and what the future holds for our area in retail real estate. The common theme was that deals are starting to get done. The deals don’t resemble what they did 5 years ago, as small footprint retailers are the most active in the market and rents are compressed. But the panelists seemed to agree (with tongue planted firmly in cheek) that the “lousy deals at low rents” offerings made for a more interesting show than in the recent past when few retailers seemed to have an appetite for expansion.
Summary:
Housing is rebounding in the Tampa market place. Retail vacancies are shrinking. Publicly traded firms need to expand. Banks, auto part stores, dollar stores and restaurants concepts were the sectors that were most active.
McBee when asked about top three areas of movement in the market:
“Convenience …..gas…. here in the Tampa Bay Market, the auto parts firms, and the fast food restaurants are still doing deals.
Miller on his business:
“I think we are the only company on this panel that is still trying to develop a heavily anchored retail project. We have decided to develop at Big Bend Road and I75, called South Shore Commons…We are entitled for 1,000,000 sq. ft., but we are trying to get 400,000sq.ft. for the first phase out of the ground.”
Miller on hopes from Las Vegas:
“If any of you are thinking we are actually to the point of developing new shopping centers, we are getting closer, “Are we there, yet?,” Not quite. What I experienced (from Las Vegas) is an increase in momentum, but it is still tempered by caution, lots of auto retailers and convenience stores and we are very encouraged by B Shop retailers who will locate on out parcels of the center. We are actually surprised that they will pay some pretty aggressive rents.” (Went on to mention Starbucks, Darden, Outback, Red Robin as concepts looking….on the anchor side, Discount retailers and Specialty big box, Sporting goods, Office Products, Home Stores are starting to put their toes in the market, but their attitude and underwriting is very conservative.)
On when the Big Box retailers will start to move again:
“We are starting to see the housing market turn around in a pretty big way in our submarket….I am fairly optimistic that we are 6 to 18 months from the retailers believing that.”
Crossman added to Miller’s comments:
“You touched on it a little, but I would like to add that it used to be a projection of growth to get an anchor deal done. Today, there is none of that…. zero.” (meaning that the retailer wants to know roof top numbers today to base a site selection decision. They do not make decisions in this environment on what roof tops are projected to be in 3-5 years.)
Rice on Las Vegas:
“The comment I would add is that the deals to be done with anchor tenants are on “in-fill” deals,(added that he does not expect hard core negotiations in Vegas. Florida is RMC’s market and the Florida ICSC conference is more consequential to their business, than ReCon. He uses the Vegas show to plan for Florida.)
Rice on the retailers in motion:
“Dollar Tree, the dollar stores”
Rutledge on activity in the market:
He mentioned Truffles and highlighted restaurants as growth opportunities. “I think there are a lot of these concepts that are going to try to find spots. They have limited staff resources and are going to need help (from brokers) mapping out the area.”
Rutledge on the market:
“The model of “find the big box retailer” and then fill the rest of the space, is broken for the near term. I think there is a lot to be done looking for empty out parcels, parking lot locations, and empty box spaces. We are out looking for every opportunity…tenant driven.”
“Multi-family is hot right now. There is yield and there are buyers.”
“We are working on a multi-family project right now with a partner and considering placing out parcels to service the residential and stack that density behind.”
McBee About the Tampa market:
He mentioned the dollar stores, banks, and restaurants all doing deals.
Miller on surprises in the market in Tampa:
“There is a new group in the cinema industry that has decided to get back in the business….15 locations with 200 screens”
Rutledge on future:
“This is the key to why ICSC is so important…..your friendships are important….I think the energy level, the certainty level, the feeling that something is going to get done. Maybe not what we anticipated, but I challenge you to go out and do what people think cannot get done. I think we can. I think Florida is on its way back. I think there are going to be a group of people that are going to be successful. I think there are tenants that are going to need help and support and we can provide it. This is a great business and this is a great time. These times are when successful people thrive and set themselves apart (for the next round of growth).