It was my first trip back to the annual Orlando conference in three years. Since the beginning of the 3+ year old downturn in the real estate market, I, like many of my colleagues, had steered clear of the conference, deciding not to invest the time or money in the face of stiff economic resistance and little chance for deal consummation. While the economic ice appeared to be cracking several quarters ago, I thought it was time for me to make like Punxsutawney Phil and explore the Spring thaw.
Here are a couple of my thoughts of the conference and an overview of the first session of the day on Monday, the Florida Regional Overview.
Conference planners estimated that there was an increase of 10% in attendance from the previous year.
The gloom and doom was gone from the last time I attended in 2008. I am not sure what that means other than perhaps people are becoming more comfortable with the new norm.
The mix at the Expo appeared lighter than usual with developers and heavier than usual with brokers.
One of the reasons I have enjoyed this conference in past years was the introduction to new technology and services. With brokers and developers having less disposable income these days for technology investment and retailer expansion muted, it should come as no surprise that the conference was almost devoid of new technology. Some of the well known established service providers apparently decided not to attend either.
Most of the Economic Development teams in the State were present. Hillsborough County, City of Tampa and Tampa Bay Partnership were noticeably absent. Orlando had a terrific booth, full of education about how to invest in the area and what incentives are available.
Miami seems to be recovering faster than the rest of the State. The weak dollar has definitely been a help with foreign investors from Brazil and Europe.
All that said, the mood was upbeat and optimistic. While deals are hard to come by, many were out with their wish lists, trying to find the perfect match. I hope it was a productive conference for all in attendance. I know I was glad to feel like I was officially back in the game.
“Government needs to have more efficient regulation as opposed to less regulation.” Industry is unified in Central Florida unlike in other places in the State….Amway Center was used as an example.
Kieran Quinn, from Guggenheim Partners,
Florida has not done a great job of creating careers in Florida. Great universities… but not a great job of keeping graduates.
Regarding Real Estate: Retail on “First and Main” is not much of a concern. Demand will always be there. Office is on shaky ground.
Tim Becker from the University of Florida,
Capital markets are going to be shaken up by S&P downgrade, Politics, Europe etc.
CMBS Origination will not reach $50 billion this year. There was a big hiccup due to political impasse and economic uncertainty.
Life Insurance companies will be overweight real-estate, if stock market continues to drop. This will slow activity and take key buyers out of the market.
Q2 dip in UF sentiment, due to capital markets and political uncertainty. Fundamentals are pretty good actually, compared to previous years.
Innovation Square is the most exciting project in the State…it has the concept of creating careers for people in our State.
Suk Sing from Darden
Tertiary malls are having the most problems.
Restaurants, entertainment and fitness centers, which are activity based, are highly valued. Retailers want shoppers to stick around. The longer they stick around, the more likely they are to buy at other shops.
There is an oversupply of secondary and tertiary space with a shortage on prime locations. There is an increased focus on second generation space.
Land Assemblage is back. In-Fill skills are important.
Lenders are very focused on leases right now. Deals are taking two years to complete because of increased scrutiny from government and lenders.
Hot retailers like Wawa, Desigual, Lulu Lemon are expanding. Globalization and more specialization is what is happening in retail.
ICSC Florida Conference – 2011
ICSC Florida 2011
It was my first trip back to the annual Orlando conference in three years. Since the beginning of the 3+ year old downturn in the real estate market, I, like many of my colleagues, had steered clear of the conference, deciding not to invest the time or money in the face of stiff economic resistance and little chance for deal consummation. While the economic ice appeared to be cracking several quarters ago, I thought it was time for me to make like Punxsutawney Phil and explore the Spring thaw.
Here are a couple of my thoughts of the conference and an overview of the first session of the day on Monday, the Florida Regional Overview.
All that said, the mood was upbeat and optimistic. While deals are hard to come by, many were out with their wish lists, trying to find the perfect match. I hope it was a productive conference for all in attendance. I know I was glad to feel like I was officially back in the game.
Here are some photos from the Facebook page of the good folks at ICSC…
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Florida Regional Overview
Monday, August 22, 2011
8:00 am – 9:00 am
Mayor Richard Crotty, former Orange Count Mayor
“Government needs to have more efficient regulation as opposed to less regulation.” Industry is unified in Central Florida unlike in other places in the State….Amway Center was used as an example.
Kieran Quinn, from Guggenheim Partners,
Florida has not done a great job of creating careers in Florida. Great universities… but not a great job of keeping graduates.
Regarding Real Estate: Retail on “First and Main” is not much of a concern. Demand will always be there. Office is on shaky ground.
Tim Becker from the University of Florida,
Capital markets are going to be shaken up by S&P downgrade, Politics, Europe etc.
CMBS Origination will not reach $50 billion this year. There was a big hiccup due to political impasse and economic uncertainty.
Life Insurance companies will be overweight real-estate, if stock market continues to drop. This will slow activity and take key buyers out of the market.
Q2 dip in UF sentiment, due to capital markets and political uncertainty. Fundamentals are pretty good actually, compared to previous years.
Innovation Square is the most exciting project in the State…it has the concept of creating careers for people in our State.
Suk Sing from Darden
Tertiary malls are having the most problems.
Restaurants, entertainment and fitness centers, which are activity based, are highly valued. Retailers want shoppers to stick around. The longer they stick around, the more likely they are to buy at other shops.
There is an oversupply of secondary and tertiary space with a shortage on prime locations. There is an increased focus on second generation space.
Land Assemblage is back. In-Fill skills are important.
Lenders are very focused on leases right now. Deals are taking two years to complete because of increased scrutiny from government and lenders.
Hot retailers like Wawa, Desigual, Lulu Lemon are expanding. Globalization and more specialization is what is happening in retail.